Both Countries Add Jobs, Both Countries' Economists Discover Humility
In a rare cross-border synchronised event, Statistics Canada reported 88,000 new jobs in May while the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 172,000. Economists on both sides of the border had predicted considerably less, which is the polite way of saying they were wrong by the population of a mid-sized town.
The Canadian forecast had called for roughly 10,000 jobs, a number arrived at by the time-honoured method of taking last month's guess and shaving a bit off for vibes. The actual figure was nearly nine times higher. Bay Street analysts responded by issuing new forecasts for June, which will also be wrong, but in a fresh and exciting direction.
In Washington, the labour market was described as "picking up steam," a phrase that has now been used to describe the U.S. economy in 47 of the last 52 monthly reports, including two recessions. NPR listeners nodded along while making coffee.
The truly remarkable detail is that both countries added jobs in the same month their governments were busy explaining why the other country's tariffs were destroying everything. Canadian ministers blamed American protectionism for sluggish growth that turned out not to be sluggish. American officials blamed Canadian dairy quotas for inflation in goods that contain no dairy.
The jobs, meanwhile, were created by small businesses who weren't listening to any of it and were too busy trying to find someone willing to work Saturdays.
Economists have promised to do better next month. They have promised this every month since 1936.